American Funds wrote a great piece on the path to the white house, and what citizens should expect over two months between election day and inauguration.

First, here’s a quick timeline of how those two months proceed:

They go on to make the following points (excerpts chosen):

1. The certainty within the uncertainty

   A majority plus one — or 270 electoral votes — are needed to win the presidency. If there are disputes, any litigation related to votes, recounts or ballot certification must be resolved by December 16 so the electors can do their job. If no candidate achieves 270 electoral votes, the US House of Representatives is tasked with choosing the next president. Inauguration Day follows on 20 January.

2. Expect a firestorm of legal challenges

   “A close presidential race will be contested by whoever loses,” Miller says. “Investors need to be ready for public drama, mass litigation, and a great deal of uncertainty between 5 November and 20 January.

3. Mail-in ballots will take time to count

   In the 2020 election, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, a record 43% of Americans voted by mail, according to the US Census Bureau. That number fell to 32% for the 2022 midterm elections, but it remains above historical averages, based on an analysis by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

   Some states, including the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, don’t allow mail-in ballots to be processed until Election Day, meaning those results will almost certainly come later.

4. Recounts are rare — and rarely change the outcome

   For example, most statewide races do not get recounted at all. Of the 0.5% where recounts were conducted, 92% did not reverse the initial outcome, according to an analysis by FairVote, a nonpartisan research organization focused on election reform.

5. investment implications are minimal

   From 1933 to 2023, under unified and split governments, the average annual return for the S&P 500 Index has fallen into a broad range from roughly 11% to 14%. A split Congress, as we have today, has generated an average return of 13.7%.

We appreciate the insight, and how it was clearly presented in a non-partisan manner. As we know, that’s not easy to pull off these days