Chart- What Comes After All-Time Highs?

After an unexpected banner year for the stock market, a lot of investors are wondering whether now is a good time to put new money to work. After all, the most vivid memories we have of money are often the ones that were most painful to us (or our friends), usually associated with betting big on something right before a crash:

  • Going long on tech stocks right before the bubble burst in 2000

  • 2nd homes bought in the mid-2000s that got foreclosed on during the financial crisis

  • Heck- even the last hand of blackjack that ended the hot streak

Remembering the pain and forgetting the gains (before or after) is human nature. There’s a fitting quote from the book "Confessions of a Winning Poker Player," by Jack King:

"Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems,

but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy

the outstanding tough beats of his career."

Research JP Morgan, however, reminds us that all-time highs are generally followed by MORE all-time highs:

The trend is your friend?

The trend is your friend?

So, while investing near all-time highs feels scary, it’s no reason to stop investing for your future. Indeed, if stocks continue their 100-year long term trend of upwards… Today’s all-time high may look like a bargain down the road.

Further reading: https://www.jpmorgan.com/wealth-management/wealth-partners/insights/top-market-takeaways-is-it-worth-considering-investing-at-all-time-highs