What to Expect When You're Electing
Voter guides and ballots will be landing in mailboxes before we know it.
Here’s how Mid-Term Elections might impact the markets.
This fall, whether by mail, electronically, or in person, we will be voting on all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate. Members of the House of Representatives serve two-year terms—so we vote for our “house” on even years. Senate members serve six-year terms, which provides voters an opportunity to replace or renew 1/3 of the Senate every election period.
Those of us in California will be voting on 1 Senate seat, and 52 seats in the House.
Albeit 9 months away, the midterm elections will be at the forefront of our news feed and daily lives soon enough. We understand the fear and uncertainty that are present when your person or proposition doesn’t win. But this is exactly why we have elections often—to renew, reset, and rebalance our country’s ideas.
Capital Group examined 85 years of stock market data (S&P 500) to learn how mid-term elections affect the markets. Two of their findings are outlined here:
THE PRESIDENT’S PARTY TYPICALLY LOSES SEATS IN CONGRESS
Midterm elections occur every four years at the midpoint of a four-year presidential term, and usually result in the president’s party losing representation in Congress. Over the past 21 midterm elections, the president’s party has lost an average of 30 seats in the House and an average of four seats in the Senate. Only twice has the president’s party gained seats in both chambers—1998 and 2002.
FOR INVESTORS: Since losing seats is so common, it’s usually priced into the markets early in the year. The unknowns about the political power shift have always led to increased volatility within the markets. We are always keeping an eye out for opportunities during volatility.
MARKET RETURNS TEND TO BE MUTED UNTIL LATER IN MIDTERM YEARS
Markets, on average, tend to move sideways during most of the midterm election years—not gaining much momentum until shortly before election day. This doesn’t mean the market stays flat, volatility is persistent, and markets tend to take 2 steps forward and 2 steps back until predictions are looking more predictable.
FOR INVESTORS: Despite the uncertainty leading up to an election, markets tend to rally when results are getting easier to predict and tend to rise after the polls close and winners are officially declared.
Remember, midterm elections (and politics, in general) generate a lot of noise. U.S. elections will always give us ample reasons for both optimism and despair. But as investors, whether our preferred outcome materializes or not, we must keep our focus on what matters: Where economic value is being created.
The reality is, long-term equity returns are generated by the value of individual companies over time. A prudent investor should look past the short-term volatility spikes that elections can bring and maintain a long-term focus.
One final thought: It seems to me that over the past two decades, most of us who lean one way or the other has maintained the same skeptical but positive view of our party. However, our view of the other party has gone from negative to quite bitter. This division means that many of us will be frustrated or angry at the results of the November election.
KEY TAKEAWAY: Don’t let electoral disappointment turn into financial disappointment as well.
-Renee Michel