Growth Investors: What Would You Do With A Second Chance?
One of the purest yet bittersweet websites remaining from the early internet is Craigslist’s “Missed Connections”. People often share regrets of not making the first move with a stranger with whom they felt a spark. The message board is a desperate last resort to reconnect with that stranger. A typical post will read like this one from December 17:
“Will we meet again?” I met you briefly when you were volunteering at a progressive Cafe / Bookstore on Allen Street. We talked briefly and I missed the chance to hold a lengthy conversation. If you see this, please message me.
The Portuguese have a word “Saudade” which describes this melancholic/romantic longing for something that could have been. In less eloquent language, Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) is anxiety over the potential consequences of saying “no” to an opportunity.
2020 left millions of investors with the feeling of missing out. As unpredictable as everything was last year, seeing companies with negative earnings soar to all-time highs was tough on investors. We’ve had the regret conversation a dozen times with both new and seasoned investors; “Why didn’t I buy ___________ nosebleed-valuation tech company?”
It’s always tough to see a stock price triple and miss out on the gain. That’s one difficult truth of investing: your missed opportunities are broadcast 24/7.
Another difficult truth of investing is that things are always changing. Sometimes your winners become losers and vice versa. As the world re-opens, several 2020 stars are having a Sophomore Slump in 2021:
Legendary Banker JP Morgan once said, “In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners.” That quote has stuck around for a century because a bear market will quickly shake out the short-term traders from the long-term investors. When markets fall apart, you find out which shareholders want to own the company for the long haul.
We do know with near certainty that some of these companies will never reach their prior highs, while others are experiencing a routine growth-stock pullback. We just don’t know which ones yet. After all, great growth companies like Amazon, Apple, and Netflix experienced a dozen 50% stock drops since they began trading. Volatility is an embedded feature in competitive markets.
I would encourage you: if you felt like you missed out on __________ stock last year, this might be your shot to add it at a better price. A second chance of sorts.
Were you just flirting with the idea of trading it? Or did you truly want to own it for the long haul?