Who are the personal finance winners and losers in this market?
By now you’ve watched the news and seen countless headlines about Covid-19 (CoronaVirus). As of writing (3/9/2020, 11 years to the day after the financial crisis bottomed out) the S&P 500 is down double digits year to date. The market has dropped quickly during the last 3 weeks as it tries to price in what the lasting impact will be, and the bond market has rallied as investors pile into safer assets.
People are being more cautious on travel and social outings, while stocking up on stay-at-home goods. We can all agree that the economic impact will be meaningful, and we all hope it’s temporary. With the hope of adding a financial long-term perspective, below are some of my early observations on personal finance winners and losers:
Winners
1. People with debt
Anyone who can refinance debt probably should look at doing so. Over the past year and a half, the federal reserve has cut interest rates multiple times, including an emergency ½ percent reduction this last week. YCharts shows 30 year mortgage rates have dropped a full 1 percent to under 3.3% from a year ago, 15 year rates are under 3%. Refinancing the rate, term or both is a direct savings on interest costs for decades.
2. People who are buying stocks for the long term
If you’re investing for your future, you’re obviously rooting for lower prices when you buy. Buying at lower prices means higher expected returns for the future, and higher current dividend yields. If you know you’re making an IRA contribution, you might have good timing. If you’re using a company 401(k), consider saving a bigger percentage of your pay, or re balancing into more stocks.
3. Car and truck drivers
Gas prices are again near the lowest prices they’ve been in the last decade. With oil supply surging and prices getting crushed, the low expense of energy is putting cash back in consumers and business’ pockets.
4. Risk taking travelers
Travel is predictably being given away as airlines and entertainment companies try to fill seats. The airline industry is expecting a collective loss of over $100 Billion this year. Southwest recently ran a promotion for $20 flights to vegas, cruise ships are reaching out to select travelers with free voyages, and hotels have reached recession pricing. If (big IF) you want to risk exposure, travel will likely not be more affordable than it is this season.
Losers
1. Ticket holders for trips, concerts, sports or events
Anyone who holds tickets for the first half of 2020 is likely having a crisis of faith. The risk of infection looms, but so does the risk of forfeiting the cost of tickets. Without travel insurance, and most credit cards not reimbursing cautious cancellations, they’re at best getting company credit to re-book.
2. Electronics Buyers
Most manufacturers are getting their millions of parts manufactured in the far east. The new iPhone is likely delayed, which makes sense as each new phone requires 30 different parts to make one. Its probable people will have to put their device upgrade plans on hold.
3. People who already retired and don’t have an income portfolio
Retirees who rely on their investments to supplement or provide their monthly income should be invested in a diversified portfolio with a focus on investment income. Those who aren’t invested for income, and have a higher distribution rate than income rate may be forced to sell at low prices.